{"id":2968,"date":"2024-08-20T09:35:11","date_gmt":"2024-08-20T09:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/?p=2968"},"modified":"2024-08-20T11:10:10","modified_gmt":"2024-08-20T11:10:10","slug":"ukraines-kursk-offensive-has-upended-the-war-with-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/2024\/08\/20\/ukraines-kursk-offensive-has-upended-the-war-with-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Has Upended the War with Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

20\/08\/2024
by <\/strong>Rebecca Grant<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s recent operations in the Kursk oblast have pushed the war into Russian territory, marking a significant escalation. Ukraine now holds 74 sites in a 45-mile-long pocket, utilizing advanced tactics and NATO-supplied weaponry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary and Key Points:<\/strong> Ukraine\u2019s recent operations in the Kursk oblast have pushed the war into Russian territory, marking a significant escalation. Ukraine now holds 74 sites in a 45-mile-long pocket, utilizing advanced tactics and NATO-supplied weaponry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The White House and NATO allies have shown support, allowing Ukraine to intensify its efforts. Putin, facing unexpected pressure, has resorted to nuclear threats but lacks good options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The situation highlights Ukraine’s need for a long-term defense strategy, including acquiring modern tanks to guard against future Russian aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Ukraine\u2019s war against Russia is a stalemate no more. Putin did not see this coming. And NATO is content to let Ukraine take the war to Russia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine Pushes War Into Russia\u2019s Territory, Shocking Putin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As the second week of Ukraine\u2019s operation in Kursk oblast began, Ukraine claimed to hold 74 sites in a pocket about 45 miles long and 20 miles wide. Video clips showed Ukrainian tanks, modified with reactive armor, on the ground in Russia. U.S.-made Strykers were in action as Ukraine displayed new skills in combined-arms operations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s creating a real dilemma for Putin, and we\u2019ve been in direct contact, constant contact, with the Ukrainians,\u201d U.S. President Joe Biden said Aug. 13. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

First and foremost, this is payback for more than 2,000 attacks launched by Russia into Ukraine from the Kursk region, according to<\/a> Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgiy Tykhy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, Putin is downplaying the Kursk pocket as a skirmish, even as local Russian officials declare states of emergency in front of Ukraine\u2019s advance. However, his recent salvo of nuclear threats against NATO capitals suggests Russia\u2019s leader is feeling the pressure. Whatever happens next, pay attention to the tactical lessons around this Kursk pocket. They could impact future course of the war\u2026 and Ukraine\u2019s long-term defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, Ukraine has scored a surprise by pushing the war \u201cinto the aggressor\u2019s territory,\u201d as President Volodymyr Zelensky said Aug. 10. \u201cUkraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and is ensuring the exact kind of pressure that is needed \u2013 pressure on the aggressor,\u201d Zelensky added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, Ukraine\u2019s combat experience and training by NATO members is paying off. Ukraine \u201cis quite well-organized,\u201d Michael Clarke of Britain\u2019s Royal United Services Institute told Sky News<\/em>. \u201cThey know what they are doing, and they\u2019ve got a plan,\u201d Clarke said, to include rotating troops in and out of the battle zone. That\u2019s highly professional and will be a morale boost for Ukraine\u2019s forces in the east and south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, the White House is fine with all this. A few months ago, the White House joined Britain and other allies in authorizing Ukraine to use NATO-supplied weapons to hit specific targets inside Russia. Evidently, that policy extends to ground combat, too. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Aug. 9 that Ukraine has permission to attack imminent build-ups of Russian forces. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh confirmed Ukraine\u2019s operations in Kursk \u201care within the U.S. policy of where they can operate our weapons, our systems, our capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NATO does not appear worried about escalation either. On the contrary, the German Foreign Ministry said last week<\/a> that Ukraine\u2019s self-defense was \u201cnot limited to its own territory.\u201d  \u201cWe see no reason to restrict the activities of Ukrainians\u201d echoed Finland\u2019s President<\/a> Alexander Stubb on Aug. 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, Ukraine has tacit permission to intensify the war, and why not? This is the era of the digital battlefield. Escalation control is quite feasible. Constant communication makes attack zones easy to set up and regulate in real-time, down to the meter. U.S. commanders in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria frequently blocked off battle sectors for control of long-range fires, and air and drone strikes. For example, one who is very familiar with that system is Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C.Q. Brown, an Air Force F-16 fighter pilot who commanded air operations in the Middle East at the height of the anti-ISIS war. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Ukraine has demonstrated tight command and control, racking up a series of strikes with drones and long-range artillery. The Russians said Ukraine attacked with over 100 drones on the night of Aug. 14. Over the weekend of Aug. 10-11, drones struck an airbase near Moscow. On August 3, an ATACMS sank the Russian Kilo<\/em>-class submarine Rostov on Don in Crimea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expect all this to continue. Ukraine\u2019s commanding general Oleksandr Syrskyi told The Guardian<\/a> he has a plan for the Kerch Strait bridge, and indeed for all of Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Ukraine \u2013 like all others on Russia\u2019s border \u2013 needs a long-term plan for defense. Tanks and armored vehicles will be vital for security. The land approaches from Russian will have to be guarded permanently. To do so, Ukraine will need a minimum of 300-500 modern tanks such as the M1 Abrams to create an agile, modern land force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Putin, he fell back on his standard riposte: nuclear threats against the capitals of Europe. Putin does not have good options. Russia\u2019s forces are tied down in the Donbass, making small tactical gains at huge cost, according to British Chief of Defense Staff Admiral Tony Radakin. The Kursk flank move caught Putin by surprise and without reserves in the area. If Ukraine penetrates further, Ukraine could be in a position to threaten Russian logistics and supply. Of course, Russia may counter-attack, but any scenario will stir up Putin\u2019s critics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, Putin had better watch his back with Beijing. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi appeared as surprised as the rest of the world, sputtering old platitudes about \u201cno expansion\u201d of the war in remarks made on Aug. 12. Moscow is an economic vassal of China at this point. Yet the Chinese must be dismayed by seeing Ukraine\u2019s tanks and Strykers in Russian territory; another undeniable sign that Russia is no glorious military power. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source 20\/08\/2024by Rebecca Grant Ukraine\u2019s recent operations in the Kursk oblast have pushed the war into Russian territory, marking a significant…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-transatlantic"],"views":454,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2968"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2968\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2981,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2968\/revisions\/2981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}