{"id":3110,"date":"2024-11-01T11:16:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T11:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/?p=3110"},"modified":"2024-11-01T11:16:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T11:16:21","slug":"north-korean-troops-in-russia-could-have-dangerous-ramifications-for-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/2024\/11\/01\/north-korean-troops-in-russia-could-have-dangerous-ramifications-for-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korean troops in Russia could have dangerous ramifications for Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

01\/11\/2024
By Jesse Johnson<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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The U.S., NATO and Europe are bracing for the possibility of a dangerous escalation in the Ukraine conflict, after Washington confirmed that some 10,000 North Korean troops were training in Russia \u2014 a step that the three hinted would also have ramifications for the Indo-Pacific region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pentagon said Monday that it assessed Pyongyang had sent around 10,000 soldiers in total to train in eastern Russia, with those forces expected to augment Russian forces near Ukraine over the next several weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA portion of those soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine, and we are increasingly concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast near the border with Ukraine,\u201d Defense Department deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis move would have serious implications for Europe and Indo-Pacific security as well,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NATO chief Mark Rutte called the troop deployment “a dangerous expansion of Russia’s war” and singled out Pyongyang\u2019s deepening military cooperation with Moscow as \u201ca threat to both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt undermines peace on the Korean Peninsula and fuels the Russian war against Ukraine,\u201d Rutte said after a briefing by South Korean intelligence officials on the issue to NATO countries and the alliance\u2019s other Indo-Pacific partners \u2014 Australia, Japan and New Zealand.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Speaking in Brussels, the new NATO chief confirmed that at least some North Korean military units had been deployed in the field in Russia’s western Kursk region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian troops launched a surprise offensive in Kursk in August and now control several hundred square kilometers of Russian territory, though they are being slowly pushed back amid pitched battles with Russian forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen also warned that Pyongyang sending troops to the conflict zone “represents a significant escalation of the war against Ukraine and threatens global peace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an earlier call with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, von der Leyen said that the European Union\u2019s response to this development will \u201ccenter on cooperation with the Republic of Korea and other like-minded partners.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Korea\u2019s spy agency has said that the North Korean troops being sent include its special operations forces, who specialize in offensive operations and are trained to launch attacks from behind enemy lines. But Western defense officials remain uncertain what the troops’ actual role may be, while South Korea\u2019s own defense chief has labeled them \u201ccannon-fodder mercenaries.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Korea\u2019s National Intelligence Service told lawmakers Tuesday that some North Korean generals and troops might have already moved to the front lines in Russia, the Yonhap news agency reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That report said the spy agency believes the Russian military is teaching over 100 military terms in Russian to the North Korean soldiers, but that there have been reports of challenges in communication due to the language barrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, in an apparent sign that the decision to dispatch troops in the war is moving forward, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui arrived in Russia’s far eastern city of Vladivostok on Tuesday and will visit Moscow on Wednesday, Russia\u2019s RIA Novosti news agency said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Choe is expected to discuss a wide-ranging security pact the two countries signed in June, and the talks could also involve discussions on additional troop deployments, according to Seoul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speculation has grown that the trip may help lay the groundwork for a possible visit to Moscow by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The flurry of developments between Moscow and Pyongyang has stoked fears not only of escalation in Ukraine, but also of the knock-on effects for the Indo-Pacific region \u2014 more specifically, the Korean Peninsula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By dispatching troops, experts say North Korea hopes to gain important combat experience, which they sorely lack \u2014 a worrisome development as Kim doubles down on building up his own increasingly capable nuclear and conventional weapons programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would also enable North Korea to see firsthand how effective the North Korean military\u2019s tactics and weapons are on a modern battlefield, said Evans Revere, a former U.S. State Department official who worked extensively on Korean Peninsula issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSuch experience would be invaluable as North Korea deals with the sophisticated array of weapons and technologies that the United States, South Korea and Japan can call on in the event of a conflict with Pyongyang,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond combat experience, some observers believe Kim is likely receiving aid to help prop up his regime, as well as technical assistance with a variety of weapons systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But sending troops, and the risks associated with doing so \u2014 from the possibility of them bolting from the ranks or being decimated on the battlefield \u2014 highlights the gamble that Kim appears willing to take in his strategic relationship with Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this sense, Rachel Minyong Lee, a senior fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center think tank in the U.S., said that sending troops increases Kim’s leverage over Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat is the quid pro quo? Russia must have promised something that is commensurate with North Korean soldiers, something that is worth Kim risking losing many, if not most, of his own men on foreign soil,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n

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U.S. officials have said that North Korean troops deployed in the Ukraine war would be regarded as \u201clegitimate military targets,\u201d signaling that advanced American weapons employed by Kyiv could be used to kill them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we see (North Korean) troops moving in and towards the front lines … they are co-belligerents in the war. They are fighting on these front lines and the Ukrainians are defending their sovereign territory and pushing the Russians back,\u201d the Pentagon\u2019s Singh said. \u201cSo, this is a calculation that North Korea has to make.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, some experts such as Stimson\u2019s Lee believe that Kim’s decision to send troops to Russia is not just based on immediate economic and military-technology considerations \u2014 but rather on more long-term goals, as the global security environment undergoes historic shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHe cannot have taken the step of sending his own people to Russia as mercenaries unless he had a more strategic goal in mind,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBesides the obvious and often-talked-about benefits like seeing how its weapons perform, gaining actual fighting experience on the battlefield and possibly obtaining sensitive military technology from Russia, sending <\/strong>troops … is the perfect opportunity for North Korea to raise its international standing as a country that is fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia to create an alternative global order.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Korea watchers say that official statements over the past year have indicated that Pyongyang will work closely with Moscow to do just that, and dispatching its own soldiers to Russia puts that commitment \u201con a whole different level,\u201d said Lee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could this mean Russia would reciprocate, in some form, in the event of a war between the two Koreas?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe do not know what Putin promised,\u201d Lee said. \u201cBut one thing seems clear: Since North Korea is now directly participating in Russia’s war, Kim can probably count on Putin to be more actively involved \u2014 militarily or not \u2014 in case of a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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