{"id":3310,"date":"2025-03-08T11:53:40","date_gmt":"2025-03-08T11:53:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/?p=3310"},"modified":"2025-03-10T12:41:45","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T12:41:45","slug":"us-russia-reset-2-0-or-molotov-ribbentrop-pact-2-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/2025\/03\/08\/us-russia-reset-2-0-or-molotov-ribbentrop-pact-2-0\/","title":{"rendered":"US-Russia: \u201cReset 2.0\u201d or \u2018Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact 2.0\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Michael SMART<\/strong>
08\/03\/2025
Source<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Almost every hour, the news gives us a reason to rejoice at the next step in the rapprochement between Washington and Moscow. By Putin\u2019s decree, Alexander Darchievhas finally been appointed Russia\u2019s new ambassador to the U.S. Great. NBC reports on the Trump administration\u2019s plans to start sharing confidential data with Russia (right after the cessation of intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which even the British Storm Shadow blocked)? Even more fun.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s try to figure out what\u2019s going on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s start with the obvious. The negotiations, which began last year and are continuing right now, have already led to significant progress in bilateral relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both sides show maximum satisfaction with the progress in the negotiations. Both sides are extremely satisfied with the progress made in the negotiations, both following the meeting in Riyadh and the round in Istanbul, and after other consultations that are unknown to the public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the first time, the international community became alerted on February 12, when D. Trump had a telephone conversation with V. Putin. The rumors that such calls had taken place before were in fact just rumors based on misinterpreted statements by the new US president, which the Kremlin decided to \u201cplay along\u201d with and not refute through the mouth of Putin\u2019s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soon after, on Valentine\u2019s Day, a romantic (probably because both sides tried to hide it) phone conversation took place between Presidential Assistant for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov and US National Security Advisor M. Waltz. However, pragmatic issues were discussed: the purchase of 150 Boeing aircraft (one of the most painful issues for Russia, where every flight is now a game of Russian roulette), cooperation in space and energy, the Arctic, which is very interesting for both sides (as well as for China, by the way), and, of course, Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their first real conversation, the two presidents agreed to hold talks in Saudi Arabia, a country acceptable to both sides. And Donald Trump immediately behaved like a skillful businessman, emphasizing the interest of American companies, including ExxonMobil, in regaining their positions in the Russian market. Putin easily picked up on the business side of the conversation, playing along when he mentioned Russia\u2019s interest in returning to the dollar system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 17-18, a \u201chistoric\u201d meeting took place in Riyadh. In fact, it was two separate meetings: one on Ukraine and one on the normalization of bilateral relations. On the American side: Secretary of State M. Rubio, National Security Advisor M. Waltz, and Special Representative for the Middle East S. Vitkoff. For some reason, Special Representative for Ukraine, K.Kellogg, was not present.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russians were represented by presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Minister Sergei Lavrov, and the current special representative for the lifting of sanctions, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund hedge fund Konstantin Dmitriev (a counterparty acceptable to the Americans and a longtime acquaintance and business partner of Vitkoff). The future ambassador, A. Darchiev, was also not taken along.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, the Russians realized that the Trump administration needed to demonstrate progress following the meeting in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, they could have rigidly rejected the possibility of discussing a ceasefire (Lavrov himself openly stated in an interview that \u201ca ceasefire is a road to nowhere, we need final legal agreements\u201d), and instead demanded that Russia retain control over the territories already seized and enshrined in the Russian constitution, begin the process of lifting sanctions against it, and restore Russia\u2019s access to world markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, this is fully consistent with the logic of the demands that, as noted by Nowiny Polskie, the Kremlin has put forward to the West. These are: a quick reset of the government (starting with the President of Ukraine), the West\u2019s refusal to support Ukraine with further demilitarization of the country and its deprivation of the ability to give an adequate response in the event of new aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what in return? First, the tempting (since Kissinger\u2019s time) traditional and a priori unfulfillable promise to break with China (or at least reduce the level of cooperation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secondly, the insidious offer of a concession for the extraction of minerals (those coveted rare earth elements) in the occupied territories of Ukraine. It is clear that no one in Moscow wants to share resources. However, it is important for Russia that the United States agrees in principle to discuss this issue, thereby legitimizing the Kremlin\u2019s sovereignty over the \u201cnew territories.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are many examples of projects for joint Russian-American work. There are already attempts to propose the joint development of the Shevchenkivske lithium ore deposit in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk region of Ukraine (estimated reserves: ore \u2014 14 million tons, lithium oxide \u2014 500 thousand tons). In the future, such cooperation could develop into joint work in other regions of the world, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, and potentially in Greenland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It could be promised not to resume gas supplies to Europe. In general, it could be also raised the topic of energy, relying on the business outlook of our American counterparts. This is a win-win situation, because it is no secret that without Western investment and technology, the Russian energy industry is in decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As one of the possible options, the US administration is promoting the idea of creating a single operating company to manage the entire gas transportation infrastructure of Gazprom. It is proposed to involve Western giants such as BP, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell and Blackrock as investors in this operating company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But let\u2019s get back to the actual negotiations. In Riyadh, first of all, they \u201cagreed to negotiate further\u201d. To create strategic groups in various areas of cooperation, to resume diplomatic contacts, and to prepare economic agreements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the Riyadh summit clearly outlined two Russian-American negotiation tracks: a political one (which should culminate in a meeting between the two leaders one day) and a purely commercial one. The second track actively involves Russian oligarchs and American businessmen. But not only businessmen \u2014 both the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Department of Commerce are currently working on the prospects for the return of American business to Russia (focusing on energy, mineral resources, and the financial sector).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the Russians are trying very hard to find new topics on which the Trump administration would be interested in developing cooperation. For example, the fight against drugs. Today, Russian Interior Ministry representative to the United States A. Gusev is trying hard to demonstrate the relevant capabilities to the Department of Justice and Homeland Security, the FBI, and the Drug Enforcement Administration.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A little more than a week later, on February 27, another round of consultations took place in Istanbul, this time exclusively through the Foreign Ministry, as a follow-up to the Saudi agreements. The delegation of Russian diplomats was headed by \u201calmost ambassador\u201d Darchiev. The American delegation was led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Sonata Coulter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The low level of the officials was due to the technical nature of the issues discussed. First of all, the restoration of a full-fledged \u201cpre-war\u201d diplomatic presence (issuance of an agriman to Ambassador Darchiev, resumption of financial services for diplomatic missions, hiring local people to work in them, etc.) As the saying goes, \u201cconsultations to eliminate minor irritants\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the Istanbul meeting was supposed to prepare for the Rubio-Lavrov meeting of the heads of departments. It is expected to be held in the coming days in March in Baku or Istanbul again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is clear where this is going. Of course, the Kremlin wants to build on its success. It wants to show its own population that it is restoring its superpower status when one of the American officials, preferably Trump, takes pride of place among the spectators of the 80th anniversary of the Victory Parade on Red Square.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in terms of \u201crealpolitik,\u201d Kremlin, while continuing consultations at various levels, is still betting on a Putin-Trump meeting. It is counting on the fact that \u201cpersonal chemistry matters\u201d. And Kremlin believes that this meeting will finally allow for a businesslike division of the world into zones of influence. And Putin may even sign a treaty with a secret additional protocol, like the one signed on August 23, 1939, by the foreign ministers of the Third Reich and the USSR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, the issue of European security remains a problem for Europe itself. Neither Russia nor the United States take its interests and voice into account, and the issue of Ukraine is just a bargaining chip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Michael SMART08\/03\/2025Source Almost every hour, the news gives us a reason to rejoice at the next step in the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editors-choise"],"views":857,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3310"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3313,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3310\/revisions\/3313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopolitic.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}