17/07/2025
By Lord Robertson
Source
The world has fundamentally changed since I was NATO Secretary General in the early 21st century. It would be wrong to label that time as “peaceful” – indeed it saw the first and only ever declaration of NATO’s Article 5 following the 9/11 attacks against the United States – but it was a time in which we were cautiously optimistic about the prospects of long-term global peace and security. The end of the Cold War had enabled the so-called “peace dividend”, meaning that from 1990 to 2014 the average NATO-wide defence expenditure fell from 3.77% of GDP to 1.46%. It was seen as a low priority.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said in 2025. Today, the UK and NATO are facing threats which are more serious and less predictable than at any point since the Cold War. Russia, a nuclear-armed state, has launched a brutal and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine. China, Iran, and North Korea are actively supporting Moscow. And the UK and our NATO Allies have already fallen victim to grey-zone “hybrid” acts of warfare, such as cyber-attacks, information manipulation, attempted assassinations and assaults on our critical infrastructure. All this, combined with a rapidly evolving technological picture, leaves the UK and the Alliance in a position of heightened vulnerability. It demands a response.
Across our 32 member countries, it is clear that the extent of these threats has been well understood. Last month, at the NATO Summit in The Hague, Allied Heads of State and Government came together and established a new defence spending commitment of 5% of GDP – 1.5% of which will go towards defence-related expenditure, such as resilient public infrastructure. This decision was taken in the context of the new long-term Capability Targets agreed by NATO defence ministers, which provide a roadmap for each Ally to maximise their individual contributions, thus generating a collective deterrence effect. The security challenges of tomorrow require decisions to be taken today and the reality is that the changed global security environment requires us all to spend more on defence.
Without security, there is nothing else
Spending more on defence is not an easy thing to do and we should not pretend otherwise. Governments across the Alliance are operating in a difficult fiscal environment and our people have become used to the benefits of the “peace dividend”. To spend more on defence, it is necessary to do one of three highly unpopular things: tax more, borrow more, or deviate spending from other priorities. As a politician, I know that defence spending commitments will inevitably raise questions about the impact on funding for welfare, public services and suchlike.
The necessity of defence spending can be hard to explain to the public because it is ultimately an insurance policy: by the time you really need it, it’s already too late. It can also be misinterpreted as bellicose when in fact the truth is the complete opposite. The best way for the UK and NATO to prevent conflict and preserve peace is to establish a credible and effective deterrence and defence posture. Any potential adversary should understand that an attack on a NATO Ally would be met with a lethal response.
And we should be clear that without security, there is nothing else. There are no thriving public services in conflict zones, nor generous welfare systems. The first responsibility of government is to protect its people, and in an increasingly volatile and dangerous world, we cannot afford to be complacent and naïve in the face of serious threats.
Britain’s Strategic Defence Review
At the heart of political choices related to defence expenditure lie two important questions. First, what is required to ensure a country has the military capability it needs to meet the threats it faces? And second, how can that be achieved against a challenging economic backdrop, ensuring efficient spending and value for money for tax-payers? There is an inevitable gap between the answers to these questions.
This was the crux of Britain’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review (SDR), which the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Sir Keir Starmer, asked me to lead alongside foreign policy expert, Dr Fiona Hill CMG, and former British Army officer, General Sir Richard Barrons KCB CBE. We worked in full cooperation with the Ministry of Defence, engaging with the highest levels of UK defence leadership to lay out a strategic vision for the most profound changes to the UK’s defence for well over 100 years.
I am pleased to say that the UK government published our report and has accepted all of our 62 recommendations in full. This has been enabled by the UK government’s important decision to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027/28 and, vitally, to 3% by 2030. At the NATO Summit in The Hague in June, all 32 NATO Allies, including the UK, committed to raising defence spending to 5% of GDP (of which 3.5% on core defence expenditure) by 2035.
A principle of “NATO first”
The centrality and indispensability of the transatlantic Alliance is one of the major conclusions and recommendations of our report. As we have already discussed, the relative comfort of the post-Cold War era is rapidly evaporating – it may already have done so. Today, the UK must protect its security, prosperity and values in a world shaken by population growth, climate change, nuclear proliferation and the Digital Age, and dominated by state-level confrontation.
This period of unprecedented instability demands enhanced collective security with the UK’s allies, especially through NATO, to sustain deterrence that prevents opponents from inflicting harm. The UK must recognise that its security is underpinned by formal alliances and partnerships which act as a force multiplier for collective deterrence and defence. NATO has brought peace to the Euro-Atlantic for more than 75 years. And it does not just provide strength in numbers in the event of a crisis, but also provides a unique forum for collective action and industrial collaboration across the Alliance. It facilitates consensus-building on global issues and establishes strong partnerships with countries beyond the region.
Our report argues strongly that NATO must be the starting point for how the UK’s armed forces are developed, organised, equipped and trained in order to contribute to deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic, shaping the environment and potential adversaries’ thinking every day. The Alliance must be at the heart of British defence plans and the very foundation of how the Ministry of Defence thinks, mainstreamed through policy, doctrine and concepts development, education, and talent management. Every decision must begin with the consideration of how effectively it can advance NATO’s objectives. The UK Government is fully aligned with this foundational philosophy.
Defence in the Digital Age
Our report was also highly informed by the Digital Age and the rapid advancement of technological innovation. Technology is changing defence and security just as much as it is changing every other part of our lives. Data in a secure cloud, AI, robotics, autonomy, bio-science, quantum computing, and new materials are just as vital as missiles and radars. Deterrence in that context means transforming how armed forces are designed, constructed, operated and supported.
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine shows what war really means in the Digital Age. It illustrates the scale and pace of military transformation and has some important lessons for UK Defence. An estimated 80% of casualties in Russia’s war against Ukraine are caused by one-way attack drones; a simple example which sends an important signal to the UK to adapt its military doctrine and defence investment strategy to the new technological environment. Whoever innovates fastest will maintain the upper hand.
Our report recommends a constantly evolving transformation that combines existing and new technology to make the UK the most technology-enabled armed forces in Europe. In order to do so, engaging with NATO’s UK-based innovation organisations, the NATO Innovation Fund and the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), will remain essential.
It is highly encouraging then to see the UK government is doubling investment in autonomous systems over the next four years, including opening a new Drone Centre and providing up to £1 billion for the digital integration of our armed forces. Integration means adopting a common digital foundation, evolving at pace from crewed equipment to a ‘never-complete’ blend of crewed, uncrewed and increasingly autonomous forces. The Royal Navy, the Army, the Royal Air Force, and Strategic Command articulated this essential point consistently throughout our engagements to deliver this report, and I am pleased to see the Government has taken it onboard as a priority.
Industry, society and growth
Transformation also extends beyond the ‘front line’. Our report examined the whole ‘defence enterprise’, making recommendations across almost every aspect, including people, education, training, acquisition and infrastructure. Recruitment and personnel remain a fundamental part of that defence ecosystem, and NATO provides a strong platform to share best practices.
The report also sets out a transformation of the relationship between the Ministry of Defence and industry, crucial for a true partnership. The partnership will only flourish if procurement rules and processes change as recommended, to draw both the best innovation and the unmatchable power of commercial investment into Research and Development, and areas like infrastructure. The appointment of the new National Armaments Director is vital to this outcome.
The private sector plays an essential role in defence, from technology and innovation start-ups and scale-ups to small and medium-sized enterprises, private investors, trade unions and their workers, and larger defence companies. Defence has significant untapped potential to be a new engine for growth at the heart of the UK’s economic strategy – it already supports 440,000 jobs across the UK, but sustained investment can grow this even further. As an example, the UK’s new munition factories and long-range weapons production are expected to create nearly 2,000 new jobs. With further joint-procurement and collaboration with our NATO Allies (amongst others), the UK can help build a new partnership with industry which supports economic growth, value for money for taxpayers, and enhanced capability outcomes.
However, defence is not just about raw capabilities and production capacity. It cannot be siloed from the rest of society. The new world poses risks to the UK at a potentially existential level, and the resilience of the UK homeland in a ‘whole-of-society’ undertaking is as vital to deterrence as projecting armed force. Resilience involves every institution, enterprise and citizen and that means promoting a sense of national unity and solidarity across society, and raising public awareness surrounding the threats the UK and its allies face. That is why the Government is preparing a new Defence Readiness Bill to improve national preparedness for crisis and conflict, and delivering more opportunities for young people to engage with the armed forces such as a voluntary ‘Gap Year’ scheme. This work is vital to bridge the gap between the general public and the people in uniform who are working to keep them safe.
A new era
When I saw the images of the 32 Allied Heads of State and Government together at the NATO Summit in The Hague last month, I saw a renewed sense of purpose for our Alliance. It is undeniable that the world is much less safe today than it was in the decades immediately following the end of the Cold War. Peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area is far from guaranteed. But there is strength in unity, and the new defence spending commitment of 5% of GDP agreed by Allies is testament to our resolve, our capacity to defend each other against common threats and our determination to collectively build a stronger and fairer NATO.
The UK is playing its part in this. The Strategic Defence Review which I and my colleagues have provided for the Government marks a new era for British defence and puts the transatlantic Alliance at the heart of its strategy and purpose. Through enabling greater technological innovation, supporting industry and jobs, strengthening our armed forces and our societal resilience, and stepping up our leadership within NATO, the Review provides a roadmap to make Britain safer, secure at home and strong abroad. In doing so, we will demonstrate solidarity with our NATO Allies and make our Alliance even stronger.
The Strategic Defence Review is a toolkit for protecting our way of life at an uncertain and volatile historical moment. It is a huge opportunity for Britain and NATO. It is now time to get to work to deliver on its recommendations. I will continue to push and support the UK Government in that vital endeavour.