By Simon Hutagalung
11/06/2026
In recent years, Japan has shifted from being a cautious ally of the US to an independent power that seeks to prevent the region from becoming a mere theatre of war between the two superpowers. As before, the country is strengthening its alliances with its Asian neighbours and major countries in the world, and working on several technologies that are expected to change the world in the future. At the same time, however, Japan is also strengthening its relations with many Southeast Asian countries and South Asian countries, and holds many dialogues with ASEAN at its centre.
It is not easy for Japan to confront China’s naval expansion and assertive actions in the region while at the same time its economy remains very dependent on China for its markets and its supply chains. This means that Japan cannot be too close to the US and appear to be subservient, nor can it be too confrontational towards China and risk causing instability in the region or even affecting its own economic growth. This is why Japan is trying to maintain a balance between these two rivals and at the same time try to reassure ASEAN that its presence in the region is to stabilise the region, not to be coercive.
Military modernisation will be the first pillar of Japan’s strategy. The newly released National Security Strategy of Japan emphasises the creation of long-range strike capabilities, enhancement of missile defence capabilities, and cyber resilience. The lessons that can be learned from the way Ukraine has been able to endure and to deter attack will be key. Japan’s military will also begin to operate in several different coalitions, including with the US, Australia, and the UK. But, there are also risks, particularly that Beijing will view these new capabilities as part of a containment strategy. And, there is also a risk that Southeast Asian states will view an arms competition in the region, with negative consequences for their development.
Diplomacy is the second pillar of the strategic recalibration of Japan’s foreign policy, with ASEAN at the centre. The strategy towards Southeast Asia emphasises reassurance over pressure. In an era of increasing militarisation in the region, in which more and more countries are acquiring military capabilities in the hope of deterring others from using force, ASEAN members are wary of further militarisation on their doorsteps. In such a context, while Japan must enhance its military cooperation with other countries in the region, including through joint exercises, as well as to provide its partners with capabilities and awareness to safeguard their interests at sea, reassurance rather than pressure is key. In concrete terms, this means providing patrol vessels, enhancing maritime awareness, and financing infrastructure in the region. If these efforts are successful, Japan can present itself as a nation that is enhancing the autonomy of ASEAN, rather than trying to get its member states to choose between the US and China in their great power rivalry.
Japan’s economic and technological strategy is another key area of focus for the country, in order to strengthen its position in the region and to increase its support to ASEAN. Japan’s supply chain risk, in particular with regard to the rare earths needed for advanced electronics and semiconductors, which are largely produced in China. In addition, Tokyo has recently eased restrictions on defence exports, and is actively supporting domestic research into cutting-edge technologies such as AI, quantum computing, and cyber defence. By strengthening its economy in this way, Japan aims to increase its resilience and to develop its own national security capabilities, without, however, becoming overly dependent on its own military. At the same time, however, the country’s economic policy must also take account of the fact that China remains a major trading partner for Japan, while the economies of ASEAN countries are linked to both Beijing and Tokyo. In order to strengthen its position in the region, Japan therefore needs to find a pragmatic and balanced approach to the issue of its own economic vulnerability.
However, for Japan, there are many risks to its new way of thinking and acting. It is very easy for its military build-up to increase the security dilemma with other powers. Its diplomatic efforts to build up its network of partnerships with countries in Asia, including newly independent countries in Southeast Asia, will be put to the test by the extent to which Japan can be more than just a cautious ally of the United States and remain a sensitive and respected member of the region. The new approach to strengthen Japan’s economy through increased innovation and a more resilient supply chain also contains many risks. The risks of its increased military activities in the region could undermine the economic growth that Japan needs in order to finance its military build-up. Furthermore, there are still many domestic limitations to the extent to which Japan can become a more assertive and independent actor on the international stage, in particular as a result of the limitations imposed by the constitution of Japan under Article 9 and of the increasing threat of a remilitarized Japan perceived by many in the region.
In conclusion, to achieve its strategic goals, Japan needs to adopt a multidimensional approach to address these issues. The country must continue to strengthen its military capabilities, particularly in terms of expanding its maritime surveillance capabilities and building its long-range strike assets. In addition, it must deepen its partnerships with key countries in ASEAN through joint patrols and joint development of key infrastructure. Japan must also invest heavily in the development of its cyber and space capabilities, as these two domains are likely to be a key arena of future competition. Moreover, Japan must work to establish a stable relationship with China by continuing to engage in crisis communication and other forms of dialogue to reduce the risk of miscalculation. Furthermore, it is critical that Japan aligns its economic security policy with its defence policy, in order to build sufficient resilience to changes in the external environment without severing its economic ties with countries that remain critical to its growth.
So much of Japan’s current thinking on its defence strategy revolves around the country’s attempt to shape the emerging structure of the Indo-Pacific to prevent it becoming a purely U.S.-China rivalry. To ensure its own security and help stabilise the region, Tokyo is striving to develop into an “independent power” while remaining a constructive member of the regional community. To achieve this, Japan is pushing ahead with the modernisation of its military and implementation of its security strategies, at the same time as deepening its cooperation and partnership with other countries and regions, and increasing its contributions to regional affairs through diplomacy and other means. The key to the country’s strategy will be to maintain a stance of deterrence while avoiding any escalation of conflict, and to present itself to ASEAN and other countries of the region as a balanced power that can provide a middle course between submission to China and conflict with that country.